ITS GOING TO GET COLD
Most people are only aware of the AGW models that predict as CO2 levels rise temperatures will rise. However there are other factors that explain climate change and these occur with incredible regularity and none are included in any traditional climate models. The wizard is talking about solar cycles and these are really fascinating to consider.
John L. Casey and others have shown that there are solar cycles of 11 years, 100 years and 200 years (actually 206 years) that repeat consistently. The one that has a major impact is the bicentennial cycle. The Maunder Minimum occurred during the Little Ice Age and one can see pictures of Ice fairs on the Thames River in London. This was a time of extreme cold and the history of that period was very bad for humans. There were crop failures and famines, along with diseases which effected the weakened populous. That was about 400 years ago. See below for picture of the ice fair.
The cycle repeated again during America’s Revolutionary War and during this time we also had great hardship around the world. This solar cycle was called the Dalton Minimum and it was slightly less cold than the Maunder Minimum. See below for Washington’s’ famous crossing of the Delaware where the river was covered in ice flows.
And guess what NAAites everywhere … it’s back. Yes the 206 year cycle has started to return and we are seeing evidence of the waning of the sun. Here are a few things that were predicted by John Casey (see quick book review at the end of the blog):
- Sun spot activity has declined substantially (cycle 24 now less than 65 sunspots … lowest since 1906)
- The Northern lights have dimmed as solar activity has diminished.
- The sun has shrunk in size.
- The polar ice caps have started to grow.
- Winters are becoming colder (over 1300 record cold temperatures were recorded in the US in the month of November alone. Denver even recorded its lowest daily high since 1892.)
Yes, I can hear the AGW voices saying it’s actually caused by the polar vortex which is caused by global warming. Yes black is white and the real cause is CO2. That’s what you might hear. But ask yourself if something can cause both high and low temperatures, is that really a useful theory … especially when there are other extremely credible models going back 1200 years that indicate the sun varies in output on a regular basis.
The Russians have been predicting that by 2030 or so we would be entering a very cold phase .. a new Little Ice Age. And in his book Dark Winter, John L. Casey has reaffirmed that the 206 year cycle is almost upon us. We have had no warming for 18 years and if history is any indicator, we are about to enter a period of extreme cooling. Hopefully, it will be more along the lines of the Dalton Minimum and not the Maunder Minimum as the Little Ice Age was truly a time of human tragedy. The Dalton Minimum level was bad enough (about a 1.5 degree centigrade drop in global temperatures)
What the Wizard wants to know is why are these known repeating cycles not incorporated into the climate models that are used today. It would make for far better science. But alas it would also reduce the alarm level and so would have no political imperative. It is sad that climate science is apparently ignoring truly significant verifiable aspects of temperature changes just for the sake of ideology.
MORE BAD NEWS
And for more bad news, unlike AGW which has no positive feedback, the solar minimum results of extreme cold do have positive feedbacks. There is evidence that earthquakes and volcanos occur with greater frequency during times of extreme cold. Not sure the causal factors, but it is pretty clear that such activities are correlated with extreme cold weather. This means that if we get a massive volcano like say Mt. Tambora in 1815, then the volcanic ash spewing into the air can partially block the sun and cause temperatures to plummet even further. The year without a summer took place in 1816 was directly tied to the Mt Tambora eruption. See video below:
An outstanding book that lays out the case for long term solar cycles is Dark Winter by John L Casey (The previous version was Cold Sun.) A former NASA rocket scientist, he lays out the research he did to document the bicentennial cycles which had been little studied in the U.S. What is great about his theory is that he has made predictions about solar activity that have turned out to be true. (Unlike the AGW predictions which have been almost universally wrong.) The Wizard of NAA strongly recommends this book for those willing to consider alterative theories of climate change. I found the evidence presented to be very persuasive
Our planet may be headed for a Little Ice Age. This may go against all current theories of climate change, but it is based on solid evidence that cycles of the sun repeat and can be predicted accurately. If this is true, dramatically different energy and agricultural policies will be needed if the earth is to avert a climate disaster. At the very least, we should be considering this evidence very closely and incorporating this into all climate models. AND if you haven’t bought a really warm jacket, I would suggest you do so before the prices go up. Storing up a few seeds and nuts might not be a bad idea either. BBBRRR … it just might get a little nippy out there.
NEXT UP: What Causes Ice Ages (including the Carbon Dioxide / Mineral Dust Theory of Ice Age Cycles … get out your disco boots because we are going back to the 70’s)